Monetary Integration and Structural Change in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Slovakia

Abstract

We study structural convergence of a small open transition economy associated with integration into the euro area. Slovakia provides a particularly informative case, combining a rapid post-transition integration process with the adoption of the euro in 2009. Using a two-country structural VAR for Slovakia and the rest of the euro area, we distinguish convergence in structural relationships, exposure to shocks, and shock propagation. We allow Slovak structural relations to differ across the pre- and post-euro regimes while estimating euro area relationships over the full sample. The results document substantial convergence along all three dimensions. Most prominently, the Slovak Phillips curve flattens markedly and moves close to its euro area counterpart. Accordingly, the inflation-to-output response to domestic demand shocks falls from around 2 before euro adoption to about 0.5 afterwards, closely matching the euro area. At the same time, the sensitivity of Slovak demand to euro area activity roughly doubles, and euro area demand and supply shocks become major sources of Slovak output and inflation fluctuations. Finally, Slovak responses to both domestic and euro area shocks become substantially more similar to corresponding euro area dynamics. The results illustrate how monetary and real integration can reshape the business-cycle structure of small open transition economies entering a currency union.